000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 5N95W 12N116W 8N127W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHRINK AS
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TO AROUND 20N W OF 135W AND ITCZ 
MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER NORTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 11-13N 
EXPANDS POLEWARD. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL OVER NEARLY ALL OF 
THE AREA N OF 10N. THIS HAS CREATED A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NOT 
CONDUCIVE TO ANY DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 
17N115W AND 11N123W. CLUSTERS OF WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE UP 
WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT ARE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT IN THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS NW SWELLS PROPAGATE IN. MODERATE NW SWELL ALSO EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 115W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING STILL IN EFFECT...FOR A FEW MORE 
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUE 
AT NEAR GALE ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT WSW 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE IN 24 
HOURS. N WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE 
SEAS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODERATE TO 
STRONG N/NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL