000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 6N95W 11N115W 7N125W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 3N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N95W 11N110W 14N120W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SHRINKING IN SIZE AS 
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TO AROUND 20N W OF 135W AND THE ITCZ
MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER NORTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 11-13N EXPANDS
POLEWARD. AS A RESULT...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL OVER NEARLY ALL 
OF THE AREA N OF 10N. THIS IS CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NOT 
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 
17N115W AND 11N123W. IN FACT...THE STRONG SHEAR HAS WEAKENED THE LOWS
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF WEAK CONVECTION 
CONTINUE TO FIRE UP WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT ARE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NW SWELLS PROPAGATE IN FROM THE N PACIFIC.
MODERATE NW SWELL ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA N OF 5N W 
OF 115W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SFC TROUGH ALONG 14N137W 3N141W 
WILL MOVE W OF 140W TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING STILL IN EFFECT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO ABATE TO GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE AT 
NEAR GALE THROUGH 36 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT WSW OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE IN 24-36 
HOURS. N WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT
THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AND MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL