000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221626
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 15N110W 10N123W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
97W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 
118W AND 125W...AND FROM 4N TO 9N W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER MOISTURE WITH PINEAPPLE EXPRESS IS 
STREAMING W TO E WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE...AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING TROUGH...N OF 20N W OF 125W. DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER 
AIR WITH MOSTLY WLY UPPER FLOW FOUND N OF 18N BETWEEN 113W AND 
125W. UPPER HIGH CENTERS NOTED NEAR 8N116W AND 10N105W. UPPER 
SW/W FLOW NW OF THESE HIGHS CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION 
OVER THE ITCZ AND LOW NEAR 11N122W. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPOSED REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO 
IS NEAR 17N115W 1010 MB...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 
24 HRS. LOW NEAR 11N122W IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH A CLUSTER 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION STILL NOTED MAINLY S OF THE 
CENTER FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. SEAS EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT ON NW PORTION OF THIS LOW AS IT INTERACTS 
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH NW OF THE AREA.  MODERATE NW SWELL ALSO 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 115W OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SFC TROUGH ALONG 14N136W 2N140W EXPECTED TO 
MOVE W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 
TONIGHT...WITH A SHIP NEAR 14N96W REPORTING 50 KT AT 1200 UTC. 
THIS EVENT EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE VERY CLOSE TO GALE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. 40 KT SHIP NEAR 9N88W AND THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS 
ALSO LED TO ISSUANCE OF GALE WARNING DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RELAX BY 36 HOURS. MODERATE TO 
STRONG N/NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EVENTS EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD THROUGH THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
WILLIS