000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221035
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N78W  7N100W  15N113W  9N123W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W AND WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS FROM 97W TO 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING E PAC BASIN ALONG 140W N OF 17N IS 
BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE ALONG ITS 55 KT JET CORE BUT LIKELY WILL 
NOT DIG FURTHER SOUTH ON ACCOUNT OF WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 
8N115W WITH WELL DEFINED RIDGE ALONG 9N FROM COSTA RICA TO 133W.  
TROUGH SHOULD TURN NE FLATTENING WIND FLOW N OF 17N W OF 115W.   
ITCZ CONVECTIVE MOISTURE DEBRIS RIDING WEAK 50 KT JET CORE ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
WRN CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...ALL THREE WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AT 
17N114W 10N122W AND 9N132W AGONIZING UNDER SW SHEAR ALOFT AS 
CONSEQUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO SURVIVE THROUGH THE DAY.  WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERED 
E PAC BASIN YESTERDAY HAS LOST ANY DEFINITION S OF 32N AS UPPER 
TROUGH SHIFTS NE.  ONLY LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING FORECAST WATERS N OF 
15N W OF 120W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS AS STRONG AS STORM FORCE TO WEAKEN DOWN TO 
GALE FORCE WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BELOW GALE WITHIN 36 HOURS.  
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...WHILE LOSING SOME STRENGTH...SHOULD 
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH 48 HOURS.  NE WIND ACROSS CARIBBEAN 
REMAINS SO STRONG THAT EVEN CROSSING INTO GULF OF PANAMA FOR BRIEF 
PERIOD OF TIME...36 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES