000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 7N100W 15N111W 10N121W 10N135W 7N140W. ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N122W IS MOVING W TOWARD A HIGH IN 
NORTHERN MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 27N105W. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN 36-48 HOURS. DRY STABLE AIR OCCUPIES 
MOST OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND A MID LEVEL 
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OF 30N W OF 125W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS 
10-12N E OF 110W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ IS STREAMING ENE THROUGH SRN MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE EVIDENT NEAR 
16N113W 11N121W AND 10N135W. NONE OF THESE LOWS IN THE TROUGH ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL INCREASE NNW OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND A WEAKENING DIFFUSE 
STATIONARY FRONT. ASSOCIATED MODERATE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD THROUGH 
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG HIGH PLUNGING SOUTH 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE FAVORED 
GULF LOCATIONS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS GAP WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AREAS 
TO ITS SW. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS BEFORE 
ABATING TO GALE FORCE FOR ANOTHER 18-30 HRS. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
HANDLING THE SEAS VERY WELL COMPARED TO SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND AS A 
RESULT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR 22 FT TODAY
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FETCH DECREASES IN 
BOTH SIZE AND INTENSITY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS APPROACHING 
GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL