000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 10N105W 14N110W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...AND BETWEEN 
91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 
108W AND 113W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N122W IS MOVING W TOWARD A HIGH IN 
NORTHERN MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 27N105W. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN 36-48 HOURS. DRY STABLE AIR OCCUPIES 
MOST OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND A MID LEVEL 
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OF 30N W OF 125W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS 
10-12N E OF 110W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ IS STREAMING ENE THROUGH SRN MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE EVIDENT NEAR 
16N112W 11N119W AND 10N133W. NONE OF THESE LOWS IN THE TROUGH ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MUCH DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE NNW OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND A DIFFUSE 
FRONTAL TROUGH. ASSOCIATED MODERATE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG HIGH PLUNGING SOUTH IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS 
GAP WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AREAS 
TO ITS SW.  IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-36 HRS BEFORE 
ABATING TO GALE FORCE FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
HANDLING THE SEAS PRETTY WELL COMPARED TO SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND AS 
A RESULT WE HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR 22 FT 
WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FETCH 
DECREASES IN BOTH SIZE AND INTENSITY. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS 20 TO 30 KT
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS APPROACHING 
GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
MUNDELL