000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211623
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N102W 13N110W 8N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
90W AND 100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 
113W...WHICH INCLUDES THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
SERGIO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW THROUGH 30N120W 
18N115W...AND IS SURROUNDING BY DRY/STABLE AIR. UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS W THROUGH THE FAR NE PACIFIC...FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 
10N92W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE SW SHEAR OVER THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO AND THE OTHER ITCZ 
CONVECTION...WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING ENE 
THROUGH SRN MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.   

AT THE SFC...FROM W TO E...WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N132W HAS 
HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS WITHIN 120NM N SEMICIRCLE AND EXPECTED TO 
MOVE WNW 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL TROUGH. 
ASSOCIATED MODERATE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC LOW NEAR 11N118W IS DRIFTING W WITH 
HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS NRN SEMICIRCLE. REMNANT LOW SERGIO NEAR 
16N111W IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE MORE OF A SFC TROUGH AND COULD 
DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. SEE MIAHSFEP2 FOR FORECAST DETAILS ON 
THESE SYSTEMS. 

STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AREA 
TO ITS SW.  IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS 
BEFORE ABATING TO GALE FORCE FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS.  WW3 MODEL 
HAS HANDLED THE SEAS PRETTY WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE AVAILABLE 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 22 FT AND 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE 
FETCH DECREASES IN BOTH SIZE AND INTENSITY. THIS MORNINGS 
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
WILLIS