000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210405
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 8N87W 9N100W 14N107W 9N120W 6W140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 
130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 23N123W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
19N129W TO 10N140W. TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE MID LEVEL 
AIR. SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH SW SHEAR IS EVIDENT FROM CLOUD TOPS 
WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE LOCATED NEAR 
8N94W 15N109W 11N117W AND 8N131W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF 100W...ALLOWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
TO ADVECT NW ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N136W TO 
28N140W WILL SPREAD MODERATE NW SWELL THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW NEAR 11N117W WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS NW 
OF THE LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH A HIGH N OF 20N.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A TEHUANTEPEC EVENT EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST AT OR NEAR STORM FORCE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...BECOMING 
GALES THURSDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT EXPECTED TODAY. 

$$
MUNDELL