000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO AT 14.9N 108.0W 1008 MB AT 2100 UTC MOVING
W OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO HAS BECOME POORLY ORGANIZED AND  
LIMITED TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS DUE TO PERSISTENT WLY SHEAR 
OVER THE CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N77W 10N90W 13N106W 7N120W 5W140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N124W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
19N128W TO 9N140W. TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY STABLE MID LEVEL AIR. 
SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH SW SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD TOPS OVER 
THE ITCZ. WEAK LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE LOCATED NEAR 8N92W AND 
11N116W AND 8N130W. A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS COLOMBIA 
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF 100W...ALLOWING EPAC TROPICAL 
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NW ACROSS SE MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 
28N140W WILL SPREAD MODERATE NW SWELL THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW NEAR 11N116W WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS NW 
OF THE LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH A HIGH N OF 20N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM OF THE LOW NEAR 8N92W.

STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A TEHUANTEPEC EVENT EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST AT OR NEAR STORM FORCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. RAPIDLY BUILDING 
SEAS TO 22 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$
MUNDELL