000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201632
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO AT 14.9N 107.2W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING W SW OR 255 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 
40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO REMAINS LIMITED 
TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH PERSISTENT SW SHEAR OVER THE 
CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 10N90W 12N105W 7N120W 5W140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 113W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 23N124W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
THROUGH 20N128W 9N140W. TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY/STABLE 
MID TO UPPER AIR. SW SHEAR ON THE SE PORTION OF THIS UPPER 
TROUGH IS STRETCHING THE CLOUD TOPS TO THE NE OVER THE 
ITCZ...THE LOW NEAR 12N115W...AND SERGIO. BROAD ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA CONTROLS FLOW E OF 100W AND ALLOWS 
TROPICAL DEBRIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT NW ACROSS SE MEXICO AND BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. 

STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N137W 
28N140W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT MODERATE NW SWELL 
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
DESCRIBED IN MIAHSFEP2. LOW NEAR 12N115W EXPECTED TO DRIFT W NW 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS FOUND IN NW PORTION AS 
THE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TO ITS NW. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150NM OF THE LOW NEAR 9N91W. 

STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST AT OR NEAR STORM FORCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. RAPIDLY 
BUILDING SEAS TO 22 FT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. 

$$
WILLIS