000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO AT 14.8N 106.7W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING W-SW OR 250 DEG AT 4 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 
40 KT.  SW SHEAR CONTINUES FORCING DEEP CONVECTION NE AWAY FROM 
LLCC DESPITE ALL EFFORTS FROM SERGIO TO RECOVER IT.  A BURST OF 
VERY COLD TOPS HEADED SW CLOSER TO CENTER AND HELPED IT MAINTAIN 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS FOR WHILE LONGER...BUT SHEAR 
EVENTUALLY PERSISTED AND CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND PULLED 
AWAY FROM LLCC.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM NE QUADRANT OF SERGIO.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...11N87W  14N105W  7N123W  6N132W  6W140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 110W AND 120 NM 
FROM AXIS FROM 110W TO 115W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N90W ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N125W THEN CONTINUE TO 10N140W.  DRY 
AIRMASS WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS KEEP ENTIRE AREA N OF ITCZ 
FREE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER 
COLOMBIA CONTROLS FLOW E OF 110W AND ALLOWS TROPICAL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NW ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE 1023 MB AT 31N133W PUSHED BY INCOMING COLD 
FRONT NOW ENTERING E PAC BASIN NW CORNER.  NOT MUCH WIND 
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT BUT LARGE SWELLS MOVE INTO BASIN NEXT 
24-48 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...N WIND IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NOW AT GALE FORCE ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE MON.  NE-E WIND EXPECTED TO 
CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA IN ABOUT 
42 HOURS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES