000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO NEAR NEAR 15.0N 106.4W 1005 MB AT 
0300 UTC NOV 20 MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SW SHEAR CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER 
EXPOSED AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO 
THE E.  SERGIO WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH THE 0300 
ADVISORY.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 14.5N103.1W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG...5N76W 12N110W 7N125W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 11.8N112.4W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 20N.  DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N130W TO 27N140W WHERE BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND.  

A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 130W.  THIS REGION IS 
ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE WEAK 
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA.

GAP WINDS...20-30 NLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE GALE 
FORCE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE ON MON. NE-E WINDS 
AREA EXPECTED TO BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA 
IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.  

$$
LL