000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR NEAR 15.1N 105.9W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC 
NOV 19 MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. SW SHEAR CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AND 
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE E.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
14.6N103.2W. NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRE AND IS 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 15.3N105.2W. THIS 
NEW CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AND SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS 
OF THIS HOUR.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG...AXIS 11N85W 7N93W 8N98W 14N107W 5N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N E OF 
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 12N103W 12N114W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE LINE 7N122W 7N132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 20N.  DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N130W TO 27N140W WHERE BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND.  

A MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 130W.  THIS REGION IS 
ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE WEAK 
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA.

GAP WINDS...20-30 NLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE GALE 
FORCE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE ON MON. NE-E WINDS 
AREA EXPECTED TO BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA 
IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.  

$$
LL