000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR NEAR 15.3N 105.5W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC 
NOV 19 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. SW SHEAR CONTINUES WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AND 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE E...WITH NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 15.5N102.5W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N82W 7N96W 14N107W 7N130W 7N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE AND STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 7N83W 7N96W AND WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N107W 7N125W 7N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO TO AN 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 20.5N122W WITH AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS CONTINUING W 
TO ANOTHER CYCLONE NEAR 19N137W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE N...AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS AT 28N127W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N135W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS N WELL BEYOND 32N124W CRESTING ALONG THE NW 
COAST CONUS. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 24N140W 32N128W IN ADVANCE OF A 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.  

SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONE IS A TROPICAL UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 8N122W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W OVER 
THE ITCZ TO NEAR 7N142W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ENHANCED ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 142W IS ADVECTED NE ROUGHLY WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N137W 18N123W. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER 
AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N140W 
25N127W...THEN COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 
123W AND 104W.   

AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N83W HAS A RIDGE W TO NEAR 12N99W 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICS FROM 4N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 76W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SAME 
AREA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRES NEAR 31N127W RIDGES SE TO NEAR 
18N112W. A SURFACE LOW PRES IS NEAR 11N115W 1007 MB AND APPEARS 
STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W MON. THE CENTER IS EXPOSED 
SW OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF BANDING...WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N118W. 
ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 9N89W ESTIMATED AT 1008 
MB. BROAD LOW PRES IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81.5W 1009 MB.  

GAP WINDS...20-30 NLY WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORM FORCE ON MON. 
NE-E WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND FONSECA IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.  

$$
NELSON