000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 105.1W...OR 210 NM 
S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. A NEW BURST OF 
DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN FORMING JUST NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF 
SERGIO AROUND 0000 UTC...BUT THIS TREND HAS BEEN OCCURRING ABOUT 
THIS TIME FOR THE PAST FEW EVENINGS. W/SWLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO 
WORK ON THE SYSTEM BUT SERGIO WILL NOT STOP PRODUCING OCCASIONAL 
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL IT RUNS OUT OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL 
AIR. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
100W-105W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N85W 8N89W 13N101W 8N120W 
8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W-95W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 104W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SUBTROPICS TO ALONG THE 
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PAST 
DAY OR SO BUT THE JET STREAM CONTINUES TO PENETRATE INLAND 
ACROSS THE NW UNITED STATES. THIS LEAVES THE EPAC DISCUSSION 
AREA UNDER WEAKER FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
30N122W TO 12N140W...AND WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N W OF 
110W AND EXTENDING ACROSS N MEXICO. SFC HIGH IS LOCATED JUST N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N128W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS COVERED BY 
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS. ITCZ REMAINS MAINLY FLAT W OF 120W 
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

E OF 120W...A 1008 MB LOW HAS PARTIALLY BROKEN AWAY FROM THE 
ITCZ NEAR 11N115W BUT ONLY HAS ONE CELL OF DEEP CONVECTION (MUCH 
LESS THAN YESTERDAY). THE BIGGER FEATURE IS TS SERGIO JUST SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO WITHSTAND MODERATE 
W/SWLY SHEAR JUST ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD KEEP A STATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER 
SERGIO WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTING LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
FARTHER E...1008 MB LOW PRES HAS DRIFTED FARTHER W OF THE COSTA 
RICAN COAST NEAR 8N89W BUT STILL HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION.

WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 KT 
RANGE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 HRS 
(SUN AFTERNOON). A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO 50 KT BY MON EVENING OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND OVER A WIDER 
SWATH OF REAL ESTATE WWD TO ABOUT 100W. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE REGION NEAR THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND FONSECA IN ABOUT 48 HRS...AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALE FORCE 
BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
BERG