000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181612 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 15.2N 104.1W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV 18 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING...CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N83W 8N93W 13N110W 9N120W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG N OF 4N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 11N106W 8N120W 10N128W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS AT 21N119W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N140W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE N AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 23N137W WITH A RIDGE TO 28N126W. SE OF THE UPPER CYCLONES ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR TS SERGIO...TRAPPING MOISTURE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N95W 12N109W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 25N98W 23N120W 21N140W. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N83W HAS A RIDGE W TO NEAR 15N92W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE E PAC N OF 4N E OF 94W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS FROM 4N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 76W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW PRES IS NEAR 10N115W 1008 MB AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FLARES NEAR THE LOW CENTER IS DOES NOT PERSIST. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 9N89W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20-25 KT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO SURGE TO GALE FORCE 30-40 KT LATE SUN. $$ NELSON