000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 102.5W...OR 300 NM 
SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 220 NM SW OF ACAPULCO...AT 
17/1500 UTC MOVING NNE AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
994 MB. SERGIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER PERSISTENT SW SHEAR.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-103W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 14N100W 10N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS IS DOMINATED BY A 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE FROM THE SW U.S. TO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N125W. A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED ROUGHLY NEAR 
20N114W...IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR. FLOW SE OF 
THIS CIRCULATION IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION OVER SERGIO AND THE 
ITCZ...SPREADING MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN MEXICO. UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER W IS ALONG 30N130W 19N140W. THIS IS ROTATING 
UPPER MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND MAINLY THE E PORTION OF THE 
AXIS.  

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N115W BUT IS UNDER STRONG 
SHEAR...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 
TOMORROW. HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS OBSERVED SE SEMICIRCLE AS DESCRIBED 
IN MIAHSFEP2. 

A GALE EVENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH IS 
WEAKENING AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER TODAY. 
NEXT EVENT EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED JUST W OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N88W 
1009 MB...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W THROUGH 24HRS TO NEAR 91W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH THIS LOW MAINLY DISPLACED TO THE S OF 
THE CENTER FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 86W-89W. 

$$
COBB/WILLIS