000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170854
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 102.8W...OR 280 NM 
SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 17/0900 UTC MOVING N AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
SERGIO IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 
98W-103W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 12N100W 11N115W 7N120W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 102W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS IS DOMINATED BY A 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE FROM THE SW U.S. TO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N124W. A CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED ROUGHLY NEAR 23N138W. THIS 
LOW IS PULLING SOME MOISTURE NWD BETWEEN 125W-135W TO 24N...BUT 
OVERALL THE REGION W OF 115W IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N115W BUT IS UNDER STRONG 
SHEAR. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES EWD TOWARDS HURRICANE 
SERGIO...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING RAINFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.

A GALE EVENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH IS 
WEAKENING AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS 
MORNING. ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED JUST W OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N88W 
1009 MB...NEARLY STATIONARY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE 
LOW CENTER.

$$
DGS