000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE SERGIO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 102.8W...OR 250 NM SSW 
OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 2100 UTC MOVING N 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. SERGIO IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF SWLY VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CENTRAL CORE 
CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...AND OTHER SCATTERED 
MODERATE EXTENDS UP TO 360 NM NE QUADRANT INCLUDING INLAND 
ACROSS SW MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 13N100W 10N118W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS IS DOMINATED BY A 
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALONG 128W WHICH IS PROPELLING THE MOST ACTIVE 
WEATHER ACROSS THE NW UNITED STATES. RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH A CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED ROUGHLY NEAR 
18N140W. THIS LOW IS PULLING SOME MOISTURE NWD BETWEEN 125W-135W 
TO 23N...BUT OVERALL THE REGION W OF 115W IS DOMINATED BY DRY 
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS HAS IN EFFECT KEPT THE ITCZ QUIET AT 
THE MOMENT.

FARTHER E...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N115W BUT IS UNDER 
STRONG WLY SHEAR WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SHIFTED E OF THE 
CENTER. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES EWD TOWARDS HURRICANE 
SERGIO...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING RAINFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN 
COAST BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. A GALE 
EVENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO 
STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. ANOTHER LOW 
IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE NICOYA PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA NEAR 
10N87W BUT CONVECTION IS MEAGER AND DISORGANIZED. THIS FEATURE 
IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH WOULD 
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.

$$
BERG