000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.5N 103.1W 970 MB AT 0900 UTC NOV 16 
MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT 
GUSTS 110 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 101W-106W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 12N100W 10N115W 6N125W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 108W TO 115W AND WITH 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 
124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 18N140W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 120W. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 13N126W WITH RIDGE FROM 
CIRCULATION TO BEYOND 32N128W. SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO 
CIRCULATIONS IS ADVECTING ITCZ MOISTURE FROM 5N-21N BETWEEN 
122W-135W.

DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER NE MEXICO IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A 
STRONG MID LATITUDE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO N OF 
20N...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
FROM HURRICANE SERGIO AND THE ITCZ. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES...1020 MB...CENTERED NEAR 29N132W WITH RIDGE 
TO 19N119W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR THE ITCZ AT 12N115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL SET UP A STRONG PRES GRADIENT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO 
LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
THIS MORNING.

$$
DGS