000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160402
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.3N 103.2W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC NOV 16 
MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT 
GUSTS 110 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N102W 10N103W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 9N92W 12N103W 12N115W 6N122W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 8N81W 6N93W AND LINE 11N104W 9N110W 8N137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 31N91W 21N97W 16N110W 21N127W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
18N141W. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 27N136W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 32N132W 1021 MB RIDGING SE TO 
23N110W. A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 13N128W WITH ITS 
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 124W AND 142W WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES NE TO A CREST AT
22N127W. DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 
15N140W 20N127W 12N116W 21N91W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N73W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 13N92W WHERE A WEAK N-S 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N94W TO 13N93W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE SERGIO DOMINATES THE UPPER 
LEVELS S OF 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 109W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SERGIO IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO 
MERGING WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION 
NEAR 19N96W...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN...ALL 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N100W 21N87W 20N71W TO BEYOND 
21N56W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 90W IS 
CONFINED TO THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE...S OF 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 
69W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG GALE SETTING UP FOR SUNRISE THU MORNING IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LASTING INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON