000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.0N 103.6W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING E AT 2 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG 
WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N102W 9N104W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 9N93W 13N103W 12N116W 7N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 8N85W 5N90W 11N103W 7N130W 8N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N94W 17N116W 21N132W INTO AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 
18N139W. A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 27N135W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 32N128W 1021 MB RIDGING SE TO 
20N112W. DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 
15N140W 20N127W 14N115W 19N100W.

A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N129W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN 124W 
AND 142W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N71W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 13N91W WHERE A NORTH TO SOUTH 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N94W TO 13N93W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE SERGIO DOMINATES THE UPPER 
LEVELS S OF 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 109W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SERGIO IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO... 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS...ALL WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N102W 19N92W 21N80W 20N60W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 90W IS CONFINED TO THE AREA S 
OF 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 68W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG GALE SETTING UP FOR EARLY THU MORNING IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LASTING INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON