000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 12.1N 103.9W 987 MB AT 1500 UTC NOV 15 
MOVING SE OR 135 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 
108W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 10N100W 8N125W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 133W TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 17N119W. 
THE TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGE POLAR MASS OVER THE US. EXTENSIVE 
MOISTURE IS SEEN N OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES SE. A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 19N137W MOVING W IN A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE 
COVERING N OF 15N W OF 119W.

THE REST OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 12N125W. DRY AIR COVERS THE UPPER LEVELS 
ELSEWHERE S OF 15N.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1006 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 10N88W IS MOVING W 
10 KT. SEVERAL BANDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE SEEN NEAR THE 
CENTER.

WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC
AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
TORRES SUAREZ