000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150906 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED NOV 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 12.6N 104.2W AT 15/0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 102W-108W. SERGIO REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 13N115W 8N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 133W TO 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N137W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N-30N W OF 130W. NE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N127W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N124W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SW INTO MEXICO N OF 19N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MEXICO N OF 20N AND INTO THE PACIFIC FROM 20N-30N E OF 130W. SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 20N110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SERGIO COMBINED DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND THE ITCZ E OF 92W. NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THU MORNING IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AROUND MIDDAY THU AND LASTING ABOUT 24 HOURS. $$ DGS