000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 
15/0300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 15N104W 11N105W. SERGIO REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N80W 9N90W 14N114W 8N124W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N108W 
15N115W AND FROM 7N TO 10N W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N85W 22N97W 18N130W TO A BASE AT 14N140W. A DEEP 
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N135W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
HIGH PRES AT 31N132W 1025 MB RIDGING SE TO 22N112W. SOME UPPER 
MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 28N139W 31N135W 31N131W...BUT IS EVAPORATING 
AS DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 
13N140W 18N127W 21N102W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N74W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 14N88W WHERE A NORTH TO SOUTH 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N94W TO 14N93W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER TROPICAL STORM SERGIO... 
WITH A RIDGE NE TO NEAR 16N95W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS W TO NEAR 
14N112W. 

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SERGIO...COMBINED DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 98W AND 110W...CONCENTRATES IN A MOISTURE 
PLUME THAT IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO...THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO...STRAITS OF FL...CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS...ALL WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N103W 
20N90W 24N75W 22N66W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE 
ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA AND THE ITCZ E OF 92W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 74W. DRY UPPER AIR 
IS NOTED S OF 7N BETWEEN 98W AND 108W.    

GAP WINDS...NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THU MORNING IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AROUND MIDDAY THU 
AND LASTING ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$
NELSON