000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO IS STATIONARY NEAR 12.8N 104.5W AT 14/2100 
UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 8N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SERGIO REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 8N88W 13N100W 13N115W 7N126W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N88W 22N97W TO A BASE AT 10N114W. A DEEP LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 27N130W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES 
AT 31N132W 1025 MB RIDGING SE TO 24N114W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE 
REMAINS UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 28N139W 31N133W...BUT IS EVAPORATING AS DRY UPPER 
AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 11N140W 17N120W 
21N105W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N75W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 15N92W WHERE A NORTH TO SOUTH 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N95W TO 16N94W. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
SEPARATES THE PARENT UPPER RIDGE TO THE E FROM A NEW UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER TROPICAL STORM SERGIO...WITH ITS 
RIDGE CONTINUING W TO A CREST NEAR 10N133W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
SERGIO...COMBINED DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W...CONCENTRATES IN A MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTREME 
SE FL...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...ALL WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N104W 22N88W 24N74W 21N66W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE EASTERN RIDGE ALSO ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND THE ITCZ E OF 
95W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 13N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 74W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF 7N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 108W...SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION.   

GAP WINDS...NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THU MORNING IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON AND 
LASTING ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$
NELSON