000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140409
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL LOW PRES 12.7N 104W 1009 MB AT 000 UTC...CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO BAND AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 21-E AT 0500 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N105W 15N105W.     

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N82W 7N86W 13N104W 12N116W 7N121W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 9N E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N101W 8N109W 
14N116W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N129W 7N139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 27N98W 22N118W TO A BASE AT 12N130W. A DEEP LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 29N132W WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRES 31N134W 
1025 MB RIDGING SE TO 22N110W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 24N139W 28N135W 32N128W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED NW OF LINE 8N140W 24N107W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 15N87W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A 
CREST NEAR 14N112W OVER THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ALLOWING UPPER VENTILATION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS 
ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 118W. 
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD 
MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO...FL AND THE BAHAMAS...ALL WITHIN 
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N110W 25N90W 25N80W 23N70W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE ALSO ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND THE ITCZ E OF 92W. 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 13N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 75W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 104W...SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION.   

GAP WINDS...NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THU MORNING IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
NELSON