000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 12N103W 1008 MB IS DEVELOPING 
BANDING FEATURES AND THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED 
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N83W 9N86W 12N103W 7N108W 13N115W 6N123W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 10N E OF 91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
16N101W 8N110W 13N112W 6N123W 6N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 25N105W 16N122W TO A BASE AT 10N134W. A DEEP LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 29N135W WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRES 31N134W 
1025 MB RIDGING SE TO 24N112W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
22N138W 32N131W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF LINE 
9N139W 16N123W 25N105W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 16N90W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A
CREST NEAR 14N112W OVER THE TROPICAL LOW PRES ALLOWING UPPER 
VENTILATION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 119W. THE RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO... THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...FL AND THE BAHAMAS...ALL WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 17N110W 24N95W 26N80W 24N67W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE 
RIDGE ALSO ENHANCES CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND 
THE ITCZ E OF 92W.

GAP WINDS...NEXT STRONG WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THU MORNING IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
NELSON