000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 12N103W SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION DESPITE NOT 
SO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.  MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW 
CONTINUES AND CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE WITHIN 
36-48 HRS WITH POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM INTO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N84W  8N89W  13N104W  7N124W  7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 90W 
AND FROM 104W TO 110W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N108W TO LARGE CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 14N132W.  DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 4 DEG EITHER SIDE OF 
TROUGH AXIS IMPLYING STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS NW CORNER OF E PAC SQUEEZING TROUGH AND 
EVENTUALLY FORCING IT NE.  

SECOND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER OVER GUATEMALA ADVECTS 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
FEEDS LOW PRES MENTIONED IN FEATURES PARAGRAPH.  AS WEAK 
DEFORMATION ZONE ABOVE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY...CONDITIONS BECOME 
MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF FEATURE INTO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. 

AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 31N138W PUSHING SE 
FORCED BY COLD FRONT N OF AREA.  GRADIENT TIGHTENING HAS 
INCREASED TRADE WINDS AND SE HEIGHTS N OF 7N W OF 110W.  
ELSEWHERE MOIST TROPICAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DECREASE AS BROAD CARIBBEAN/ATLC RIDGE MOVES 
E IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE 
EASTERN SEABOARD.

$$
WALLY BARNES