000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...10N85W  11N95W  12N114W 7N122W  
7N134W  6N140W.  1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 11N100W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF LOW FROM 
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 126W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 84W...AND W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD LONG WAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS AREA EXTENDS FROM 
32N109W TO 15N125W THEN TO 22N140W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE N OF 
AXIS. 

TROUGH FORCING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE E...NOW CENTERED AT 
16N89W...WITH WITH WEAK JET CORE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
DEBRIS NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND S TEXAS.  

SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 10N134W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NW 
TO BEYOND 16N140W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 130W. 

AT LOW LEVELS...1028 MB HIGH N OF AREA NEAR 33N129W.  WEAK 
TROUGH IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 29N114W 26N120W 26N126W 
WITH NO CONVECTION.  BRISK TRADES W OF 120W FROM 10 TO 25N.

SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE ITCZ ALONG 22N107W 
11N114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 17N TO21N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...AND FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 110W-115W.  

GAP WINDS...COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF MEXICO MOVING THROUGH BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH BRISK N WINDS CROSSING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO EARLY MON NIGHT THEN WEAKENING 
WITHIN 48 HRS.  SIMILAR E WINDS CROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING WITHIN 
NEXT 48 HRS. 
 
$$
FORMOSA