000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121644
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W  11N95W  12N114W 7N122W  
7N134W  6N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM 
OF 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ AT 11N102W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 118W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 94W AND W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD LONG WAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS AREA EXTENDS FROM 
32N109W TO 15N125W THEN TO 22N140W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE N OF 
AXIS. 

TROUGH FORCING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE E...NOW CENTERED AT 
16N89W...WITH WITH WEAK JET CORE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
DEBRIS NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND S TEXAS.  

SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 10N134W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NW 
TO BEYOND 16N140W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 130W. 

AT LOW LEVELS...1025 MB RIDGE WELL N OF AREA EXTENDS SE ALONG TO 
20N112W.  BRISK TRADES W OF 120W FROM 10 TO 25N.

PREVIOUS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED INTO OPEN 
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ.  MODELS AGREE IN SOLUTION DRIFT IT 
W AND WEAKEN THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.

GAP WINDS...COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF MEXICO MOVING THROUGH BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH BRISK N WINDS CROSSING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY MON NIGHT THEN WEAKENING 
WITHIN 48 HRS.  SIMILAR E WINDS CROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING WITHIN 
NEXT 48 HRS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES