000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 11N95W 13N108W 8N119W 
6N140W. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N99W 
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 99W-103W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N E OF 127W TO OVER 
THE SW US AND NW MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING 
TO DISSIPATE FROM OFF THE BAJA COAST NEAR 32N116W ALONG 29N126W 
TO 30N132W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
REGION FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 110W-132W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N100W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N 
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 9N134W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO BEYOND 15N140W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 
125W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 31N138W 
TO 18N117W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM 
15N TO 27N W OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NLY WINDS TO 20 KT SQUEEZING 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING 
INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON 
NIGHT. 
 
$$
WALLACE