000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120407
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N84W 13N106W 9N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N80W 10N90W 9N102W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 20N106W 9N118W 7N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL N 
AMERICA EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N103W 
24N113W 7N122W WITH ANOTHER LOW LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS N 
ALONG 2N107W 12N105W 21N101W THEN MERGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 
UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N101W 
22N119W 25N140W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 26N W OF 
112W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N109W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 9N121W 
AND NE TO NEAR 20N99W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH LIES ALONG 
9N116W 20N107W WITH THE REMNANT SWIRLS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ROSA AND TWENTY-E. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION THAT 
EXTENDS S ALONG THE TROUGH MERGING WITH ITCZ CONVECTION...ALL 
DESCRIBED ABOVE.

ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 9N130W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 9N140W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 
120W. THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND NE REMAINING 
ROUGHLY S OF 20N...BUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADS S OF THE 
EQUATOR TO THE W OF 112W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 31N133W 
TO 20N112W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 31N120W 
29N130W 31N140W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED FROM 18N 
TO 27N W OF 115W.

GAP WINDS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH NLY WINDS TO 25 KT 
SQUEEZING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUING INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE. 
 
$$
NELSON