000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 114.0W AT 
2100 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 
MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. THE CIRCULATION HAS ELONGATED TO THE 
POINT OF BEING AN OPEN TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER 
TROUGH EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF MILES NE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE COAST 
OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 12N90W 8N100W 12N110W 9N120W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 4N E OF 81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL N 
AMERICA EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N101W 
23N111W 11N122W WITH ANOTHER LOW LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING 
N ALONG 3N106W 16N104W 23N102W THEN MERGES WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH. UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 310 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
31N98W 23N116W 21N124W 25N140W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED N 
OF 27N W OF 113W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DECAYING TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH...NEAR 14N110W WITH A RIDGE SW 
TO 10N121W AND NE TO NEAR 19N100W. THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG LINE 19N104W 8N120W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 9N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 10N140W ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 120W. THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
N AND NE REMAINING ROUGHLY S OF 20N...AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
SPREADS S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE W OF 110W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A HIGH PRES IS NEAR 28N139W 1025 MB WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A 
COLD FRONT IS STALLING ALONG 32N126W 31N140W. LOCALLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N117W 
25N136W. 

GAP WINDS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE 
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH NLY WINDS TO 25 KT 
SQUEEZING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. 
 
$$
NELSON