000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 113.2W...OR 
680 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING W AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.  
T.D. TWENTY-E APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH WHICH 
HAS SEVERAL APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. QUIKSCAT AND AN 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE 
MAIN CENTER IS LIKELY JUST SW OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...WHICH 
IS INTUITIVE GIVEN THE SWLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE 
CONVECTION ITSELF IS STRONG AND COVERS A LARGE AREA...BUT IT IS 
NOT ALL THAT ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 109W-114W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 12N90W 8N100W 12N110W 9N120W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 2N E OF 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 95W-102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A FLAT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL PART OF THE 
E PACIFIC BASIN WITH THE POLAR JET LYING ROUGHLY ALONG 45N. A 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ISOLATED FROM THE UPPER FLOW FROM 
SRN NEW MEXICO TO SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA NEAR 19N120W. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ADJACENT TO AND NW OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND NW MEXICO. ANOTHER MORE PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS 
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N PART OF THE 
AREA BY TONIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FARTHER S...THE ITCZ IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
AREA BETWEEN 108W-144W...WITH THE ERN EXTENT HAVING BEEN PULLED 
NWD BY THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOTED ABOVE OVER NW MEXICO. T.D. 
TWENTY-E IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ELONGATED TROUGH AND IS UNDER 
THE EFFECTS OF SLIGHT SWLY SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ITCZ 
IS HIGHLY DIFFLUENT DUE TO A COLLOCATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH 
IS ENHANCING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TSTMS. TO THE 
E...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
PREDOMINANTLY ELY FLOW ALOFT SW OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. A 
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 10N95W BUT DRY AIR 
AND ELY SHEAR ARE CURRENTLY PREVENTING IT FROM ORGANIZING.
 
$$
BERG