000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N83W 10N93W 8N98W 13N113W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N82W 11N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
17N103W 13N113W 9N118W 7N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL N 
AMERICA EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N100W 
22N110W 12N115W. UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 31N96W 25N110W 25N140W. SOME UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS NOTED N OF 27N W OF 122W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC WATERS WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N102W 9N118W. 

A WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W OF AREA NEAR 16N148W WITH 
ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 14N TO 23N W OF 135W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 13N113W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 11N140W 
AND E TO NEAR 11N103W...WITH THE RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
W OF 109W.  THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N REMAINING 
ROUGHLY S OF 20N...AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADS S OF THE 
EQUATOR TO THE W OF 130W.
   
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ALONG 32N130W TO 
NEAR 21N110W...WITH LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NOTED N OF 
18N W OF 115W. LOW PRES NEAR 13N112.5W 1006 MB IS DRIFTING 
SLOWLY NW UNDER THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS A 
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
 
$$
NELSON