000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING NEAR 16.2N 
106.5W AT 10/2100 UTC. THE DEPRERSSION IS MOVING W NW 3 KT WITH 
AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 
CONVECTION MAINLY SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. ROSA IS FORECAST TO 
BE A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 12N110W 8N120W 7N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 14.5N105.4W TO 11N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF 10.7N116W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL N 
AMERICA EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N102W 
18N114W. UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 31N95W 25N110W 25N140W. SOME UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED 
N OF 27N W OF 123W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC WATERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 10N112W 18N101W. 

A WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W OF AREA NEAR 18N146W WITH 
ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 14N TO 24N W OF 136W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N116W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 8N140W 
AND E TO NEAR 11N102W...WITH THE RIDGE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
W OF 109W.  THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N REMAINING 
ROUGHLY S OF 21N...AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADS S OF THE 
EQUATOR TO THE W OF 106W.
   
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N129W 1025 MB 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E SE TO NEAR 21N108W...WITH LOCALLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NOTED N OF 18N W OF 115W. LOW PRES NEAR 
13N112W 1006 MB IS DRIFTING SLOWLY N UNDER THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS A POSSIBLILTY THAT THIS LOW COULD 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
 
$$
NELSON