000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 106.1W OR 200 
MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 10/1500 UTC MOVING NW 3 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH IT'S STRONGEST 
CONVECTION E AND SE OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 16N104.1W. 
ROSA IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 12N110W 8N120W 7N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE POINT 12.6N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 7.7N121.7W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 7N TO 8.5N 
FROM 126W TO 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG LINE FROM 21N106W TO 
17.5N115W TO 22N140W.  THE AREA NORTH OF THE AXIS TO ABOUT 29N 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. NORTH OF 
29N SOME MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WITH 
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF 130W.  THE TROUGH EAST OF 115W IS 
FAIRLY STRONG AND THIS MAY BE HAVING THE EFFECT OF ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 21N WEST OF 
134W.  THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 18.5N1145W.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY A WEAK RIDGE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  

SURFACE...
WEAKENING MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W.  BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS WITHIN THIS AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE MAP IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.
 
$$
LL