000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 105.9W OR 215 
MILES SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 10/0900 UTC MOVING NW 2 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH IT'S STRONGEST 
CONVECTION WELL E AND SE OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 9N90W 15N105W 9N118W 7N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 5N78W TO 9N88W TO 7N95W TO 9N97W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 
NM OF 13N110W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N115W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N124W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N128W 6N131W AND 
5N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT STRONG WESTERLIES CONTINUE ALONG AND N 
OF 30N WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. A WEAKNESS IN 
THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD CONTINUES BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND 
THE SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE WEAKNESS BY LOWERING MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST W OF THE REGION 
NEAR 25N146W AND NOSES IN OVER THE REGION TO 23N125W. A CUTOFF 
MID LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR JUST W OF THE 
REGION NEAR 17N145W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
ROSA HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS IN 
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FURTHER. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE REGION. NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT WERE EVIDENT IN 
QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IN A SWATH FROM 30N120W TO 20N130W TO 20N140W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY NW 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN WEAK AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WERE STRONGEST S OF 
10N BETWEEN 108W AND 130W.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE WEAKNESS AT MID LEVELS TO REMAIN 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NE BAJA READY 
TO DROP INTO IT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST W OF THE REGION MOVES 
E TO NEAR 25N137W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
1024 MB MOVES TO NEAR 31N130W WITH NE TRADES CONFINED TO THE 
REGION BETWEEN 10N AND 24N W OF 115W. WEAK LOW CENTERS ALONG THE 
ITCZ WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS THEY MOVE WWD 5 TO 10 KT. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS OF 15 KT NOTED W OF 
NICARAGUA OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY 
WINDS CHANGE LITTLE.

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS TO SHARPEN UP A BIT 
WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 110W. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE 
INTO CENTRAL CA WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 25N140W. A WEAK 
RIDGE ALONG 100W BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOME. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND NE TRADES ARE CONFINED TO THE 
AREA FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 125W WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT. A COLD 
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY AS DO GAP WINDS. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO MAY INCREASE N 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC LATE BUT IT WILL NOT BE OF GALE FORCE. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 8N EXPAND TO COVER THE AREA 
BETWEEN 95W TO 125W WITH SPEEDS TO 20 KT.
 
$$
RRG