000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 105.4W OR 200 
MILES SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 10/0300 UTC MOVING N 4 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER SOME DEVELOPMENT EARLY TODAY THE 
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BECOME MUCH LESS 
ORGANIZED AS SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.2N103.6W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N77W 7N85W 13N110W 12N115W 7N130W 
7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 12.8N109.3W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 126W.  
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST 
WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 19N143W AND IS CAUSING SOUTHERLY MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOIST FLOW SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 128W. SOME 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED 
IN THIS AREA.  ELSEWHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OBSERVED.

AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W 
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA EXCEPT 
FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF 22N W OF 128W WHERE THERE ARE ONLY 
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS A BROAD TROUGH IS 
OBSERVED.    
 
$$