000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 105.4W OR 240 MILES SSW
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 09/2100 UTC MOVING N 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
AFTER SOME DEVELOPMENT EARLY TODAY THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON 
IS LOOKING SHEARED WITH THE CENTER WEST OF THE MOST ACTIVE 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MAINLY 
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS IN WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 
14.5N103.2W. ROSA IS ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AND IT MAY ALREADY BE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION THIS 
EVENING.

LOW PRES NEAR 12N 113W 1009 MB MOVING SLOWLY N. CONVECTION HAS 
DIMINISHED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT 
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT BUT DO MAINTAIN A LOW PRESSURE THROUGH AT 
LEAST 48 HOURS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR 
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N84W 9N90W 12N100W 15N105W 9N120W 
7N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO BETWEEN 
122W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 126W.  
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST 
WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 19N143W AND IS CAUSING SOUTHERLY MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOIST FLOW SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 128W. SOME 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED 
IN THIS AREA.  ELSEWHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OBSERVED.

AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W 
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA EXCEPT 
FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF 22N W OF 128W WHERE THERE ARE ONLY 
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS A BROAD TROUGH IS 
OBSERVED.    
 
$$
LL