000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091642 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 105.4W OR 240 MILES SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 09/1500 UTC MOVING NNW 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE NEWLY DEVELOPED CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND MARKED INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN AS NUMEROUS STRONG EXPANDING IN COVERAGE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE E QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER OVER E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. ROSA IS FORECAST TO ENTER A LESS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION WITH THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN 48 HRS. LOW PRES NEAR 11N 113W 1009 MB MOVING SLOWLY N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER OVER NE QUADRANT AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC INDICATED SOME INDICATION OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES CROSSING THE WAVE ROUGHLY FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N90W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 7.5N91W 15N103W 10N115W 7N126W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 124W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W-96W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W-135W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXETNDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES SW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 25N119W TO 22N123W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS E INTO THE REGION THROUGH 26N W OF 130W. MODERATE TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT FROM 20N-24N W OF 134W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW OF THE AREA NEAR 15N145W IS NOTED. AS THE TROUGH PULLS FURTHER E OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE W-NW FLOW WILL THEN DOMINATE THIS PORTION OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA W OF 121W. PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING WSW S OF 25N W OF 120W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1400 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A SURGE OF 20 KT NLY WINDS N OF 27N E OF ABOUT 132W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE IS MARKED BY A 90 NM WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA SW THROUGH 27N120W TO 27N130W AND NW TO 28N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 130W AND FROM 23N-29N W OF 130W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED NW AND NE AS FAR N AS 24N AS RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN THAT EXISTS S OF 20N MENTIONED BELOW. S OF 20N... STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW DOMINATES THIS AREA E OF ABOUT 135W ...AND IS IMPEDING THE LOW NEAR 11N113W FROM GETTING ORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WEAKENS SOME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA ALLOWING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. W OF 135W...THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA NEAR 15N145W. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W-136W. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES ON THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 7N128W 1009 MB APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING MORE DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIME...AND IS SHOWING A MORE SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AS WELL. FURTHER E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 12N91W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 10N99W. S OF THE RIDGE...THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE. SLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY S OF 8N BETWEEN 85W-95W AND ALSO S OF 8N BETWEEN 105W-125W. THIS FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS S OF 7N BETWEEN 92W-115W. $$ AGUIRRE