000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN E NEAR 14.8N 105.4W 1005 MB AT 0900 
UTC NOV 09 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N78W 7N88W 13N105W 13N108W 7N128W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N80W TO 7N90W TO 
9N97W AND FROM 12N103W TO 12N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N121W TO 7N127W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
5N138W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST FROM 
8N80W TO 9N85W TO 13N89W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS TONIGHT N OF 30N WITH 
THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ALONG 120W JUST N OF 
28N. MID LEVEL RIDGES ARE LOCATED W OF THE REGION AND EXTENDS E 
TO 126W N OF 17N. ANOTHER RIDGE LIES OVER SRN MEXICO AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 8N105W. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES LIES A WEAKNESS IN THE 
MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N105.2W 
MOVING TOWARD THE NW AT ABOUT 6 KT. A MODERATE PACIFIC RIDGE 
1028 MB WAS CENTERED JUST N OF 35N W OF 145W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
OVER THE MARINE AREA N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. N AND NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT WERE EVIDENT FROM QUIKSCAT AND SSMI MAINLY N OF 20N AND 
W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY LIGHT NWLY. 
GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT TONIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 
KT WERE LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W AND BETWEEN 105W 
AND 120W.

LATER DAY 1 AT MID LEVELS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING E IN THE ZONAL 
WESTERLY FLOW DROP INTO THE WEAKNESS AND LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W N OF 20N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE W OF THE AREA MOVES 
E TO NEAR 26N142W AND THE SRN MEXICAN RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH SEAS TO 12 FT ON IT'S NE SIDE. 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE 1025 MB MOVES TO 33N133W WITH A NEW SURGE OF 
NLY WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG 120W DROPPING S TO 25N WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT AS DO GAP WINDS. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. 

FOR DAY 2 A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TO WRN 
MEXICO ALONG 110W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN PORTION 
MOVES E AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 120W N OF 15N. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 
IT DRIFTS NW WELL OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 1023 MB AND NE TRADES DECREASE TO 20 KT 
N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT 
NWLY. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE FORECAST S OF 7N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 
FT. 

$$
RRG