000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081021
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN E NEAR 12.7N 104.5W 1007 MB AT 0900 
UTC NOV 08 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W-106W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.    

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N77W  8N90W  12N100W  10N110W  
8N120W  9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W-106W.    

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM S ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 22N114W TO 27N128W 
AND TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N142W.  WEAK 45 KT JET CORE ADVECTS 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ N HARMLESSLY WITH NO MECHANISM TO TURN 
INTO CONVECTION.  WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF E PAC 
BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO DENT TOO FAR S AS HIGH PRES DESCRIBED BELOW 
OUGHT TO BLOCK IT... LARGE NW SWELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 
INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N W OF 130W. 

LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
MAINTAINS DRY STABLE AIR OVER NE CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS BUT 
INCREASING SURFACE N WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS...
ALSO INCREASING N SWELLS.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 
12N84W MAINTAINS DRY AIR IN NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN BUT ADVECTS 
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO  
EPAC S OF 10N E OF 93W.   

$$
FORMOSA