000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080418
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 12N104W DRIFTING W UNDER CONTINUOUS 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS DIFFLUENT FLOW SPREADS W ALONG 
ITCZ.  GRADIENT ON NW SEMICIRCLE TO TIGHTEN AS LOW PRES 
CONFRONTS SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES 1025 MB 
ANCHORED AT 31N133W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.  TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 
WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W 15 KT. 
INTERSECTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE 
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO 
DEVELOP CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS NOW OBSERVED ARE 
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  9N79W  12N102W  7N117W  9N136W  8N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 96W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 97W TO 107W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
LAID DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM S ALABAMA ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 22N114W TO 
27N128W AND TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N141W.  WEAK 45 KT JET CORE 
ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ N HARMLESSLY WITH NO MECHANISM 
TO TURN INTO CONVECTION.  WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER 
OF E PAC BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO DENT TOO FAR S AS HIGH PRES 
DESCRIBED BELOW OUGHT TO BLOCK IT...BUT LARGE NW SWELLS SHOULD 
BE ABLE TO REACH INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N W OF 130W. 

LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
MAINTAINS DRY STABLE AIR OVER NE CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS BUT 
INCREASING SURFACE N WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS...
ALSO INCREASING N SWELLS.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 
12N84W MAINTAINS DRY AIR IN NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN BUT ADVECTS 
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO  
EPAC S OF 10N E OF 93W.   

$$
WALLY BARNES