000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072210 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE NOV 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 12N104W DRIFTING W UNDER CONTINUOUS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS DIFFLUENT FLOW SPREADS W ALONG ITCZ. GRADIENT ON NW SEMICIRCLE TO TIGHTEN AS LOW PRES CONFRONTS SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES 1025 MB ANCHORED AT 31N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM NW OF CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W 15 KT. INTERSECTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS NOW OBSERVED ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 11N99W 9N109W 7N120W 9N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... LAID DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM S ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 24N122W TO 26N132W AND TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N140W. WEAK 50 KT JET CORE ADVECTS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ N HARMLESSLY WITH NO MECHANISM TO TURN INTO CONVECTION. WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF E PAC BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO DENT TOO FAR S AS HIGH PRES DESCRIBED BELOW OUGHT TO BLOCK IT...BUT LARGE NW SWELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N W OF 130W. LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAINTAINS DRY STABLE AIR OVER NE CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS BUT INCREASING SURFACE N WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS... ALSO INCREASING N SWELLS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N84W MAINTAINS DRY AIR IN NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN BUT ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA INTO EPAC S OF 10N E OF 93W. $$ WALLY BARNES