000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N103W. BASED ON THE FIRST FEW 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS  
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL BANDING 
FEATURES ARE MORE EVIDENT AND APPEAR TO BE MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT 
THE SYSTEM CENTER. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE LOW HAVE REPORTED WINDS NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LOW 
TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AND 
1304 UTC QSCAT PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LOW 
PRES SYSTEM...SPECIAL FEATURE...CENTERED ABOUT 400 NM TO ITS E.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 10N94W 11N100W 8N120W 10N133W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W..   

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA. 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE...COVERS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N EXTENDING FROM MEXICO OUT TO 130W. 
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BUT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT 
OR TOMORROW. A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TRACKING W CENTERED 
NEAR 20N140W. MOIST SLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM 
IS ADVECTING SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 20N. THIS 
MOISTURE IS THEN TRANSPORTED E BY STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
MAINLY CONTAINED S OF 18N. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS NOT VERY 
DEEP IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SPECIAL FEATURE AND ITCZ.

A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF NICARAGUA. VERY DRY AIR IN 
THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPRESSING 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING.   

$$
CANGIALOSI/BERG