000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM FROM 6N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N102W.  SOME CLOUD BANDING IS N 
OF CENTER.  DEVELOPMENT IF ANY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N79W  10N90W  11N102W  9N120W  10N130W  
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 
81W AND 84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W... 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 106W... AND FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.   

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THUS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START IN 
24 HOURS AND LAST ONLY 24 HOURS.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE E OF 90W.  20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN THROUGH 24 HRS.

E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND 1009 MB 
LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11N102W AND IS MOVING W AT 12 KT.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS AND SWELL NOTED S OF 10N FROM 95W TO 110W.

TRADES CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 122W AS 1027 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER REMAINS N OF AREA.  TRADES ARE ALSO INCREASING FLOW ALONG 
CALIFORNIA COASTS PRODUCING SWELLS MOVING N OF 22N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W.

AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE E AND WILL 
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED. 
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
18N138W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 132W AND 
145W.  FURTHER E...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW N 
OF 10N AND E OF 132W.  ITCZ HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.  UPPER RIDGE OVER SW 
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS ALSO PRODUCING AIRFLOW ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO 
E PAC FORECAST WATERS.  

$$
FORMOSA