000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.  LOW PRES 
CENTER 1009 MB FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY AND THESE TWO FEATURES LIKELY 
WILL MERGE OVER NEXT 24-36 HRS.  BAND OF CONVECTION SPREADS 
ALONG ITCZ NEAR WAVE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED 
NEAR 10N100W.  GFS...NOGAPS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AGREE OF LOW 
PRES DEVELOPMENT WITH TIGHT GRADIENT ON N SEMICIRCLE INCREASING 
WIND AND SEAS WITHIN 90 NM IN EARLY STAGES AND EXPANDING BY 48 
HRS TO OVER 180 NM.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N84W 10N105W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 20N137W HAS DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERING E PAC 
AT 140W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  E OF 
TROUGH AXIS...WEAK 45 KT JET CORE ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE ITCZ 
DEBRIS NEWD BUT CUTS SHORT OF REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SECOND 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO 24N120W TO 
27N125W HAS DRY TONGUE LIMITING NE FLOW OF THIS MOISTURE.  

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 11N116W HAS HEALTHY WELL ANCHORED 
RIDGE S OF 16N E OF 135W.  LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES 1026 MB N OF 
15N CURTAILS ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS CONTROLLED AREA. 

FURTHER E...MOISTURE WITHIN ITCZ SURROUNDS 1009 MB LOW PRES 
MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  FAVORABLE 
UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES CONVECTION AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
106W HAS LIFTING MECHANISM TO COMPLETE CYCLE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES