000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE HAS NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH IT DOES NOT HAVE ADVERSE 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.  DRY AIR MASS SWEEPING BEHIND CARIBBEAN 
COLD FRONT HAS ENTRAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND DRAINED MOISTURE OUT OF WAVE UPLIFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 2N TO 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT HAS 
DEEP CONVECTION ALIGNED MORE WITH ITCZ AXIS THAN WAVE BOUNDARY.
AXIS NOW W OF COOL DRY N WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NOW 
UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  GFS 
...NOGAPS AND MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INCLUDE WEAK LOW PRES 
FORMING NEAR 107W AND DRIFTING W THEREAFTER.  GIVEN MOISTURE 
LEVEL...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND WAVE RESILIENCE IT IS 
VERY LIKELY MODELS SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  NOGAPS 18Z RUN IS EVEN 
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS...BUT SLOWER IN TIMING. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG  9N84W  8N103W  8N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 113W AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM W OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER N PART OF E PAC AS MID/UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED AT 11N130W DIVIDES UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 
32N116W TO 18N140W AND FROM 32N102W TO 11N119W.  UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES ZONAL BETWEEN TROUGHS.  TROUGH BRINGS DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
INTO ITCZ BELT AS MOIST OUTFLOW EXTENDS NE TOWARDS MOUTH OF GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  ITCZ HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE  
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM 100W TO 115W.

FARTHER E...MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN FORCES AIRFLOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E PAC FORECAST WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE 
BUT STILL VERY STRONG...NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN 48 HRS. 
TRADES CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W AS 1025 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER REMAINS N OF AREA...ALSO INCREASING FLOW ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COASTS PRODUCING SWELLS MOVING N OF 26N E OF 115W.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND AND SWELL NOTED S OF 10N FROM 90W TO 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES